Ask John Wildenborg if he thinks Canadians will be paying more for steak during future barbecue seasons, and the owner of Calgary specialty butcher shop Master Meats doesn含羞草研究社檛 hesitate.

含羞草研究社淧rices are definitely going to go higher, no ifs, ands or buts about it,含羞草研究社� he said.

含羞草研究社淚t keeps me up at night, actually, thinking about coming into the summer and where prices are going to be. It含羞草研究社檚 not a good situation.含羞草研究社�

Beef 含羞草研究社� whether in the form of a juicy burger or a classic tenderloin steak 含羞草研究社� is a mainstay of many Canadians含羞草研究社� diets. Its popularity is the reason why consumer demand for beef has historically remained strong, even through periods of economic downturn when Canadians have less money in their wallets.

But the business of beef is changing, in large part due to consecutive years of severe drought across North America含羞草研究社檚 main cattle-producing regions. From parched southern Alberta to water-scarce east Texas, ranchers have been due to a lack of grass for grazing. The resulting shortfall in cattle supply is reducing overall beef production and helping to push retail beef prices higher.

含羞草研究社淎 10-ounce New Yorker right now 含羞草研究社� would cost around $20. Three years ago that was maybe a $15 steak,含羞草研究社� Wildenborg said.

含羞草研究社淎nd this is usually the slow time of year for beef, but wholesale prices haven含羞草研究社檛 dropped off at all since Christmas. I含羞草研究社檓 paying 40 per cent higher than I was last year at this time.含羞草研究社�

Food in general, as consumers know, has increased in price over the last three years due to the COVID-19 pandemic and an overall rising cost of living. But while inflation is starting to moderate in a number of food categories, the drought factor means beef prices are not.

含羞草研究社淲hen you talk to producers, whether it含羞草研究社檚 in the Canadian provinces or key cattle-producing regions of the United States, many producers will tell youthey含羞草研究社檝e had to experience two 含羞草研究社榟undred-year droughts含羞草研究社� back-to-back over the course of 10 years,含羞草研究社� said Lance Zimmerman, a Kansas-based senior beef analyst with Rabobank.

含羞草研究社淎dd to that a global pandemic and all the challenges that go along with that, and we含羞草研究社檝e had a 10- to 15-year period that含羞草研究社檚 been particularly challenging for a lot of cattle producers. It has led to a lot of liquidation.含羞草研究社�

Liquidation is when a rancher makes the decision to sell off a greater proportion of heifers and cows for slaughter rather than retaining them to grow his or her herd. Ranchers may decide to do this because of a variety of factors, including high input costs, limited labour availability and high interest rates, as well as the challenges associated with long-term drought.

In Canada, the size of the national cattle herd has been declining for years, a trend that continued last year amid a punishing drought in Western Canada. This country含羞草研究社檚 beef cow inventory fell in 2023 by 1.5 per cent to 3.66 million animals 含羞草研究社� the lowest level since 1989.

South of the border, U.S. Department of Agriculture figures show an even more dramatic story. There, the national cattle herd has been contracting for five years, reaching 28.2 million animals in 2023. That含羞草研究社檚 the smallest number of cattle the U.S. has seen since 1961.

Fewer cattle means less beef production, which translates to fewer exports as well as higher prices at the retail counter.

含羞草研究社淯nfortunately for the consumer, those prices are going to ratchet higher,含羞草研究社� said Zimmerman.

含羞草研究社淥n a U.S. basis, retail beef prices are currently about US$8 a pound, and by our estimation, over the next several years we can expect another dollar-and-a-half increase, quite easily.含羞草研究社�

In southeast Alberta, near the tiny community of Jenner, rancher Brad Osadczuk shipped some of his cattle east to Saskatchewan last summer to graze on rented pastureland. It was the only way he could feed them because his own grassland was entirely depleted by drought.

含羞草研究社淭his past year was the worst year for drought in adult life and I was born in 1971,含羞草研究社� Osadczuk said. 含羞草研究社淥ur native prairie just never turned green.含羞草研究社�

While Osadczuk was able to avoid reducing his herd size, he said many ranchers in his area have been choosing not to replace cows after they sell them for at least the past five years.

含羞草研究社淲e含羞草研究社檝e been mitigating drought for a long time,含羞草研究社� he said.

含羞草研究社淪o we含羞草研究社檙e kind of at a point in this part of Alberta where our herds are pretty small already.含羞草研究社�

Even if the current drought cycle were to end this year, cattle numbers can含羞草研究社檛 rebound overnight. That含羞草研究社檚 why experts say the new era of higher beef prices is here to stay, at least for a while.

含羞草研究社淭his isn含羞草研究社檛 a short-term thing,含羞草研究社� Osadczuk said.

含羞草研究社淔or a female calf that is born today, it含羞草研究社檚 four years before that female can have its own calf that can end up in the food chain.含羞草研究社�

Anne Wasko, a Saskatchewan-based market analyst with Gateway Livestock, said North American cattle and beef supplies will remain tight for several years, and much is riding on Mother Nature.

含羞草研究社淲e含羞草研究社檙e going to be looking at smaller supplies in 含羞草研究社�24, 含羞草研究社�25 and possibly out as far as 含羞草研究社�26,含羞草研究社� she said.

含羞草研究社淲e truly need moisture, first and foremost, to turn this boat around.含羞草研究社�

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Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press