含羞草研究社

Skip to content

US presidential campaigns brace for an intense sprint to Election Day

Harris and Trump jockeying for undecided vote in what appears to be a race that含羞草研究社檚 up for grabs
web1_2024090300094-66d68aff6eb0f6de6d6cb585jpeg
William Matthews, of Lycoming County, Pa., is pictured before a campaign event for Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, Friday, Aug. 30, 2024, in Johnstown, Pa. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

After a summer of historic tumult, the path to the presidency for both and this fall is becoming much clearer.

The Democratic vice president and the Republican former president will devote almost all of their remaining time and resources to just seven states. They will spend hundreds of millions of dollars targeting voters who, in many cases, have just begun to pay attention to the election. And their campaigns will try to focus their messages on three familiar issues 含羞草研究社 the economy, immigration and abortion 含羞草研究社 even in the midst of heated debates over character, culture and democracy.

The candidates in what will be their first meeting ever. The nation含羞草研究社檚 premier swing state, Pennsylvania, begins in-person absentee voting the week after. By the end of the month, early voting will be underway in at least four states with a dozen more to follow by mid-October.

In just 63 days, the final votes will be cast to decide which one of them will lead the world含羞草研究社檚 most powerful nation.

Privately, at least, both camps acknowledge that victory is no sure thing as they begin the eight-week sprint to Election Day. Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in most national polls conducted since .

The Harris campaign still put out a memo over the weekend casting itself as 含羞草研究社渢he clear underdogs含羞草研究社 in the contest.

含羞草研究社淭here含羞草研究社檚 not a scenario here that含羞草研究社檚 easy,含羞草研究社 Harris senior adviser David Plouffe said in an interview. 含羞草研究社淭he pathway to beating Donald Trump, the pathway to 270 electoral votes for Kamala Harris, is exceedingly hard, but doable. And that含羞草研究社檚 just a reality.含羞草研究社

Trump, meanwhile, rejects any indicators that suggest Harris is ahead even as he lashes out at her in deeply personal and sometimes apocalyptic terms, declaring that 含羞草研究社渙ur country is finished含羞草研究社 if she wins.

含羞草研究社淎s we move past Labor Day, we will really get into the time where voters start to harden their opinions,含羞草研究社 said James Blair, the Trump campaign含羞草研究社檚 political director. 含羞草研究社淲e feel pretty good about things. We feel energized. Our people are energized. But there含羞草研究社檚 certainly plenty of work to be done.含羞草研究社

The electoral map settles on seven states

Just over a month ago, Trump allies suggested Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota, Virginia or even New Jersey might be in play. Neither side believes that is still the case on Labor Day weekend.

In replacing Biden as the party含羞草研究社檚 nominee, Harris breathed new life into the Democrats含羞草研究社 political prospects, especially across the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. All four states have significant numbers of African Americans and Latinos, traditionally Democratic constituencies who were down nationally on Biden but appear to have come home to rally behind Harris.

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham was among the senior GOP officials who between Trump and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, whose feud threatened to undermine the Republican effort in the state. Graham told The Associated Press he was worried about Georgia含羞草研究社檚 shift leftward.

含羞草研究社淭rump was up 5 or 6 points, and all over the course of a month it含羞草研究社檚 become much more competitive,含羞草研究社 he said.

Republican pollster Paul Shumaker, an adviser to North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, said even a slight uptick in the Black vote has the potential to give Harris the edge in North Carolina, pointing to Mecklenburg County, the home of the Charlotte metro area, but also fast-growing counties such as Durham and Wake.

含羞草研究社淚f Kamala Harris could get them to turn out at the rate of Republicans in rural North Carolina, game over for Republicans,含羞草研究社 Shumaker said of Black voters.

At the same time, Trump remains decidedly on offense in the Midwestern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which form the so-called Democratic 含羞草研究社渂lue wall含羞草研究社 that he narrowly carried in 2016 and barely lost in 2020.

Those seven states 含羞草研究社 in addition to swing districts in Nebraska and Maine that each award single Electoral College votes 含羞草研究社 will draw virtually all of the candidates含羞草研究社 attention and resources over the next eight weeks.

Trump is investing more advertising dollars in Pennsylvania than any other state through Election Day.

A Trump victory in Pennsylvania alone would make it much more difficult for Harris to earn the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Harris含羞草研究社 team insists she has multiple pathways to victory.

The Democrats含羞草研究社 organizing advantage

In the fight to frame the election on the air and reach voters in person, Democrats currently have a decided advantage.

Harris含羞草研究社 team is on pace to outspend Trump含羞草研究社檚 camp 2-to-1 in television advertising over the next two months. And even before Biden made way for Harris, the Democrats wielded superior campaign infrastructure in the states that matter most.

Harris含羞草研究社 team, which includes her campaign and an allied super PAC, have more than $280 million in television and radio reservations for the period between Tuesday and Election Day, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. Trump含羞草研究社檚 team, by contrast, has $133 million reserved for the final stretch, although that number is expected to grow.

Trump含羞草研究社檚 side is actually narrowly outspending Harris含羞草研究社 on the airwaves in Pennsylvania, where both sides will spend more than $146 million between Tuesday and Election Day, according to AdImpact, a figure that dwarfs that of any other state. Georgia is drawing nearly $80 million in ad spending over the campaign含羞草研究社檚 final eight weeks.

But in the other five battleground states, Harris largely has the airwaves largely to herself 含羞草研究社 at least for now.

Trump and his allied super PACs have made only marginal ad reservations in Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada to date. Harris含羞草研究社 team, by comparison, is investing no less than $21 million in each of the five states, according to an AdImpact analysis.

Harris含羞草研究社 team also boasts more than 300 coordinated offices and 2,000 staff on the ground in swing states, according to her campaign含羞草研究社檚 weekend memo.

Blair, the Trump campaign含羞草研究社檚 political director, disputes that Democrats have as big an organizing advantage as those numbers make it seem. He pointed to outside allies that will organize for Trump are well-funded, including a new effort backed by billionaire Elon Musk.

Trump含羞草研究社檚 campaign on Tuesday said it also has more than 100 dedicated campaign offices in key states, which are backed by another 200 existing GOP offices dedicated to Republican victories this fall.

Here含羞草研究社檚 what the polls say

Both candidates are locked in close races across the seven top swing states. Democratic pollster John Anzalone said Harris 含羞草研究社減ut the Democrats back in the game to where it含羞草研究社檚 kind of a toss-up.含羞草研究社

But now comes the hard part, Anzalone said.

含羞草研究社淧ost Labor Day, when the bell rings, there is a battle for a slim universe of 含羞草研究社 you can call them anything you want: persuasion voters, swing voters, independent voters 含羞草研究社 and it含羞草研究社檚 pretty small, and that含羞草研究社檚 where each side gets a billion dollars,含羞草研究社 Anzalone said.

Many independents appear to find both candidates unsatisfying, according to in August.

For now, Harris also has a slight advantage on some key traits among independents, while she and Trump are about even on others.

For example, about 3 in 10 independents say that 含羞草研究社渉onest含羞草研究社 describes Harris better, while about 2 in 10 say it describes Trump better. About 3 in 10 also say that 含羞草研究社渃ommitted to democracy含羞草研究社 describes Harris better, while less than 2 in 10 say it describes Trump better.

The candidates were about equally likely to be perceived by independents as capable of winning the election, capable of handling a crisis, and 含羞草研究社渃aring about people like you.含羞草研究社

Who is the 含羞草研究社榗hange candidate含羞草研究社?

The race may ultimately be decided by whichever candidate can most successfully be cast as the 含羞草研究社渃hange candidate含羞草研究社 given that about 7 in 10 voters say the country is heading in the wrong direction, based on conducted in late July after Biden withdrew from the race.

Trump was the face of change when he won the 2016 election. And even after serving in the White House for four years, he continues to energize millions of frustrated voters who embrace his brash leadership style and unwillingness to follow the traditional rules of politics.

Harris has been Biden含羞草研究社檚 vice president for nearly four years, yet the historic nature of her candidacy 含羞草研究社 she would be the first woman president 含羞草研究社 allows her to make a convincing case that she represents a new direction for the country, said veteran Democratic strategist James Carville.

Still, he含羞草研究社檚 worried about his party含羞草研究社檚 含羞草研究社渟evere underperformance含羞草研究社 in the so-called 含羞草研究社渂lue wall含羞草研究社 states in recent elections.

含羞草研究社淚含羞草研究社檒l feel good after the election,含羞草研究社 Carville said. 含羞草研究社淟et含羞草研究社檚 get the hay in the barn. There含羞草研究社檚 still a lot of hay out there in the field.含羞草研究社





(or

含羞草研究社

) document.head.appendChild(flippScript); window.flippxp = window.flippxp || {run: []}; window.flippxp.run.push(function() { window.flippxp.registerSlot("#flipp-ux-slot-ssdaw212", "Black Press Media Standard", 1281409, [312035]); }); }