A political analyst says a new poll confirming the rise of the Conservative Party of B.C gives the party no reason to cooperate with B.C. United.
含羞草研究社淚 was skeptical of the merger discussion from the beginning and this does nothing to encourage thoughts of a merger,含羞草研究社� Simon Fraser University professor Nicolas Kenny said. 含羞草研究社淨uite frankly, with the Conservatives surging out ahead of B.C. United like this, there is no incentive for them to merge.含羞草研究社�
Kenny made these comments after Research Co. released a poll that shows the B.C. NDP with 42 per cent of support among decided voters with the Conservatives at 32 per cent. B.C. United and B.C. Greens each sit at 12 per cent.
The poll released May 21 but conducted May 13 to May 15 appears after days of speculations about possible forms of cooperation between the provincial Conservatives under John Rustad and B.C. United under Kevin Falcon.
Cooperation, even a merger, might have made sense when both parties sat around 20 per cent each, Kenny said. 含羞草研究社淏ut now, if you are John Rustad, you are surfing on this growing (wave of) popularity, you feel like you have the wind in your sails, why would you burden yourself with the sinking B.C. United (party)?含羞草研究社�
The poll also brings good news for Rustad himself. While Premier David Eby remains the most popular of the major party leaders with an approval rating of 54 per cent 含羞草研究社� up three per cent and 12 per cent better than the B.C. NDP as a party 含羞草研究社� Rustad has claimed second place. His personal approval rating has hit 37 per cent (plus two per cent), ahead of B.C. Green Leader Sonia Furstenau with 35 per cent (minus two per cent) and Falcon with 31 per cent (minus five per cent).
含羞草研究社淚 think at this point, Rustad is benefiting from the conservative, anti-establishment wave, more than from his individual personality,含羞草研究社� Kenny said. He added Rustad remains an unknown entity and people are attracted to him because he represents something new. 含羞草研究社淭hat含羞草研究社檚 why I think the three other parties are really going to try to seize this opportunity to define him in a negative light,含羞草研究社� he said.
As for Falcon, he faces the opposite problem. While Falcon is a familiar figure, 含羞草研究社渉e is not managing to rekindle any admiration that have been there before,含羞草研究社� Kenny said. Quite the opposite might be the case, Kenny added.
含羞草研究社淲hat含羞草研究社檚 interesting is that Kevin Falcon is really decreasing in numbers and that含羞草研究社檚 after weeks of advertising, trying to brand him as a leader that含羞草研究社檚 close to the people, who understands the day-to-day pre-occupations of British Columbians,含羞草研究社� Kenny said. B.C. United spent a lot of money on advertising, only to wake up this week and see Falcon含羞草研究社檚 popularity drop by five per cent, he added.
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The poll also reveals provincial Conservatives ahead of New Democrats among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (39 per cent versus 34 per cent) with New Democrats leading among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (38 per cent versus 33 per cent) and decided voters aged 55 and over (50 per cent versus 26 per cent).
含羞草研究社淚t does seem to be a reversal of含羞草研究社hat we are accustomed to with younger voters leaning a little bit more progressive and older voters leaning more conservative,含羞草研究社� Kenny said. 含羞草研究社淚 personally think it has a lot to do with a sense among younger voters that the established parties aren含羞草研究社檛 doing very much for them.含羞草研究社�
Kenny specifically pointed to the issue of housing. 含羞草研究社淚 think the cost of living is a real pre-occupation for younger voters, housing in particular.含羞草研究社�
Many young people increasingly see home-ownership out of reach and renting is also becoming extremely expensive, he added.
But young voters also tend to be more sensitive to issues around climate change and LGBTQ-rights, Kenny said.
含羞草研究社淪o younger voters 含羞草研究社� especially in urban areas 含羞草研究社� aren含羞草研究社檛 necessarily going to accept that social conservative element of the Conservative Party, which is why I think those numbers could still change between now and October.含羞草研究社�
This ideological split among younger voters mirrors a larger urban-rural split.
Provincial New Democrats lead provincial Conservatives in vote-rich Metro Vancouver (40 per cent to 30 per cent) and Vancouver Island (49 per cent to 29 per cent). But the race is closer in the more rural parts of the province.
New Democrats lead provincial Conservatives in the Fraser Valley and the southern Interior by one and two per cent respectively, while Conservatives lead New Democrats by two per cent in the northern Interior.
But the on-going split on the right side of political spectrum coupled with Eby含羞草研究社檚 own personal approval ratings should also make New Democrats feel good about the poll, Kenny added.
含羞草研究社淲ith the Conservatives, they have a very clear distinction to make in terms of policies, ideology (and) proposals.含羞草研究社�
