A University of B.C. professor of political science said that the upcoming federal election serves no good purpose for Canada 含羞草研究社� and might not help Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, either.
含羞草研究社淚t含羞草研究社檚 not as if the Trudeau government was having trouble legislating,含羞草研究社� said Richard Johnston, professor emeritus, adding that the Liberal government had a 含羞草研究社渨orking majority含羞草研究社� on pretty much all policy decisions.
含羞草研究社淢ostly, the problem of the minority parliament was that the government didn含羞草研究社檛 control the flow of debate and information含羞草研究社� they had they actually had to at least negotiate with the opposition parties, or even just put up with flak on questions that were uncomfortable, and they would rather not have to continue in that.含羞草研究社�
While Trudeau is billing this snap election 含羞草研究社� scheduled for Sept. 20 含羞草研究社� as a referendum on who should lead the country out of the pandemic, Johnston said that won含羞草研究社檛 be enough for a majority 含羞草研究社� and the Liberals know it.
含羞草研究社淭he additional cards that he will be trying to play are policy cards, right?含羞草研究社� Johnston said, noting the eight child care agreements signed with provinces in the weeks before the writ was dropped. 含羞草研究社淗e含羞草研究社檚 opened the spigot for infrastructure, and he含羞草研究社檚 done so in very targeted ways.含羞草研究社�
That includes SkyTrain funding announcement for ridings like Cloverdale-Langley City, which Conservative Tamara Jansen took from the Liberals in the 2019 election.
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But while Trudeau may be looking at pandemic-era snap elections in B.C. and New Brunswick, where the incumbents were able to transform minorities into majorities, Johnston said that federal politics are more complicated and that the Liberals don含羞草研究社檛 have much wiggle room. They have 155 of the 338 seats in Parliament currently, with the Conservatives at 119, the Bloc Quebecois at 32, the NDP at 24, the Greens at two and independents at five.
Johnston said that since the 1970s, the political divide between the Conservatives and the rest of the parties has grown wider and wider, leaving fewer and fewer swing voters between the right and the Liberals.
含羞草研究社淏ut the fact is that the Prime Minister side of the political spectrum is the divided side. There are competitors for a lot of those vote,含羞草研究社� he said.
In both the party含羞草研究社檚 platform released just prior to the write being dropped and in public appearances, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has targeted the increasing costs of housing and child care, problems his party has laid squarely at Trudeau含羞草研究社檚 feet.
The NDP, Johnston said, while remaining not popular enough to form government has a 含羞草研究社渃ertain credibility at the moment含羞草研究社� as a party that is strong enough that it can be a plausible destination for voters who don含羞草研究社檛 want the Conservatives, but don含羞草研究社檛 want to reward Mr. Trudeau for his gamble.含羞草研究社�
But while the NDP may be stronger this year than in past ones, Johnston said that only in some parts of the country 含羞草研究社� such as B.C. 含羞草研究社� will more votes for the New Democrats turn into more seats for Jagmeet Singh. In places like Ontario, votes for the NDP could well turn into Conservative seats as the party takes advantage of confusion on the left side of the spectrum.
And the Conservatives are better prepared this time, Johnston said. The Tories have already unveiled their platform 含羞草研究社� a contrast to 2019, when they released it a week prior to Election Day 含羞草研究社� and it includes initiatives that 含羞草研究社測ou haven含羞草研究社檛 heard from Conservatives含羞草研究社� before.
含羞草研究社淚t含羞草研究社檚 time for Conservatives to take inequality seriously, because that含羞草研究社檚 becoming more of a problem in our country,含羞草研究社� Leader Erin O含羞草研究社橳oole states in the document. He also promises to 含羞草研究社渢ake climate change seriously,含羞草研究社� but Johnston said that could be a double-edged sword for the Conservative leader.
含羞草研究社淚 think that O含羞草研究社橳oole is a more credible leader for the broad mass of voters than Andrew Scheer was,含羞草研究社� he said. 含羞草研究社�(But) I do think that O含羞草研究社橳oole has his own problems and these are the problems of the Conservative Party.含羞草研究社�
The Tories含羞草研究社� issues are long-term ones, Johnston added.
The Conservative Party of 2021 is a merger of the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance (formerly the Reform Party) that took place in 2003. The current party, Johnston said, 含羞草研究社渃learly a party of the right含羞草研究社� and created a gap between the more right-leaning candidates popular with party members and those popular with voters overall.
含羞草研究社淎lthough O含羞草研究社橳oole has dragged his party toward the centre on climate change, his party doesn含羞草研究社檛 really want to be dragged. And as that question comes up, Trudeau will be reminding people all the time, of the consequences of going over to that side.含羞草研究社�
The other issue it created, Johnston added, is that O含羞草研究社橳oole 含羞草研究社� like prior leaders 含羞草研究社� needs to keep all facets of his own party happy with policies that cater to social conservatives without turning away fiscal conservatives.
But the problem all around the political spectrum this year will be turnout. In 2019, 67 per cent of voters cast a ballot. But this year, voters already fatigued from an 18-month pandemic 含羞草研究社� and in B.C. the raging wildfires 含羞草研究社� may decide it含羞草研究社檚 not worth it for them to head to the polls.
含羞草研究社淚 think it含羞草研究社檚 hard to see this as a campaign that含羞草研究社檚 going to inspire anyone,含羞草研究社� Johnston said. His guess for the results?
含羞草研究社淚f had to put money down, I含羞草研究社檇 bet on roughly replication of the status quo.含羞草研究社�
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Editor含羞草研究社檚 note: The previous version of this story stated that the NDP had not released their platform. In fact, the party released it on Aug. 12, prior to the writ being dropped.
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