It doesn含羞草研究社檛 happen often, but it含羞草研究社檚 happening tonight: Donald Trump is spurning the chance to appear on prime-time television.
That makes the Republican presidential debate in Milwaukee a rare and perhaps critical opportunity for the bulk of Trump含羞草研究社檚 rivals to make their case to a national audience 含羞草研究社� many of them for the first time.
Make no mistake, however, the former president含羞草研究社檚 presence will be felt.
含羞草研究社淎s I like to say, he含羞草研究社檚 in the room whether or not he含羞草研究社檚 in the room,含羞草研究社� said Steven D. Cohen, a communications professor at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School in Baltimore, Md.
含羞草研究社淓ach candidate is trying to have a breakout moment. And whether they get that through an image, an attack or a memorable statement, they have to break out. Because right now Trump is far and away the front-runner.含羞草研究社�
The rest of them, of course, are decidedly not.
Not even Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the man many observers and supporters had tapped back in January as the heir apparent, only to watch an uninspired, charisma-free campaign drag his poll numbers into the mid-teens.
含羞草研究社淚含羞草研究社檒l tell you, he含羞草研究社檚 got to walk a little bit of a tightrope in how he talks about Trump,含羞草研究社� Cohen said.
含羞草研究社淗e has to show that he has the chops, that he has what it takes to take on Joe Biden, but he has to do it without alienating pro-Trump voters 含羞草研究社� or even without alienating Republicans in general.含羞草研究社�
Under normal, pre-Trump circumstances, the contest would be all but over. A CBS News poll out this week showed the former president with a commanding 62 per cent lead among likely Republican primary voters.
含羞草研究社淎s long as Trump commands a solid, committed base, he含羞草研究社檚 in control,含羞草研究社� said Mark Rozell, a public policy professor at George Mason University in Arlington, Va.
Through four separate criminal indictments 含羞草研究社� Trump plans to surrender in Georgia on Wednesday, quashing any post-debate coverage of his rivals 含羞草研究社� that base has shown no signs of abandoning him, Rozell said.
含羞草研究社淧arty leaders and donors want nothing more than for Trump to plead a deal and step aside from running,含羞草研究社� he said.
含羞草研究社淕iven Trump含羞草研究社檚 intense base support, they are not saying out loud that they would like the party to move on. Ultimately, they fear he is not a strong general election candidate and will sink Republicans down-ticket.含羞草研究社�
For the moment, at least, the polls suggest otherwise. But Trump含羞草研究社檚 escalating legal challenges also help explain why DeSantis is still in the race.
含羞草研究社淯nder other circumstances 含羞草研究社� with donors abandoning him and his polls lagging 含羞草研究社� DeSantis would depart early and live to fight another day,含羞草研究社� Rozell said.
含羞草研究社淕iven that he remains second choice still for many, he has an incentive to stay in the race in case Trump exits.含羞草研究社�
That puts the man once billed as a Republican Trump-slayer in an unenviable position: polling at a dismal 16 per cent, according to the CBS News poll, and yet likely to be a popular target on the debate stage.
Another hopeful looking to boost his national profile will be Vivek Ramaswamy, a former biotech entrepreneur who likes to channel Trump-style disdain for traditional political guardrails to curry favour with the MAGA set.
The self-described 含羞草研究社淎merica First conservative含羞草研究社� and 含羞草研究社淎merican nationalist含羞草研究社� has been polling recently in third place behind Trump and DeSantis, leading a pack of would-be contenders that has yet to crack double digits.
含羞草研究社淭hree hours of solid debate prep this morning,含羞草研究社� Ramaswamy said Tuesday on the social media platform X alongside a video of him playing tennis shirtless.
含羞草研究社淩amaswamy, who is this incredible, upstart, young, telegenic, successful business person, wants to get as much attention as possible,含羞草研究社� said Cohen.
含羞草研究社淚 think getting attacked by DeSantis or other candidates, for him, is a great thing, because it only increases his stature.含羞草研究社�
Chasing Ramaswamy in the CBS poll was former vice-president Mike Pence at five per cent, followed by South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at three per cent.
Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor who含羞草研究社檚 not shy about attacking Trump directly, was tied with Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor and the only woman in the field, at two per cent.
含羞草研究社淐hris Christie is the most interesting candidate on the Republican side,含羞草研究社� Cohen said. 含羞草研究社淗e含羞草研究社檚 the only one who含羞草研究社檚 willing to take on Donald Trump head on. He含羞草研究社檚 willing to say what no other Republican is willing to say. And he含羞草研究社檚 willing to do that publicly.含羞草研究社�
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former New Hampshire governor Asa Hutchinson, who round out the debate field, were tied near the bottom of the poll at one per cent each.
A handful of other candidates, including Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, former Texas congressman Will Hurd, conservative radio personality Larry Elder and Michigan executive Perry Johnson did not qualify to participate.
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